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Treacherous Lib Dems and Cameron's massive risk
By PETER OBORNE
Last updated at 9:32 PM on 7th May 2010
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For days after the General Election of February 1974 the Tory Prime Minister Edward Heath clung on in Downing Street. He could not bear the idea of losing office.
Even though he had secured fewer seats than Harold Wilson, his Labour opponent, Heath hoped that a pact with the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe, later to be acquitted of conspiracy to murder his homosexual lover Norman Scott, would provide the solution to his problems.
Heath offered Thorpe the post of Home Secretary.
But after a weekend of supposedly secret and increasingly farcical negotiations, all talks broke down. With deep reluctance and total lack of grace, Heath was obliged to leave Downing Street.


Parallels: Gordon Brown is hanging on to the keys of No 10 - just like Edward Heath did in 1974
The abortive Lib/Tory pact was the prelude to the most disastrous and shameful period of British post-war history.
The stock markets crashed, and so did industrial production. There were violent riots in the streets and many public services broke down. Inflation soared out of control and the savings of many honest and hard-working people were destroyed.
There was talk of socialist revolution, while senior Army officers, intelligence officers and industrialists held secret talks to discuss the possibility of a military coup.
A second election, held in October 1974, did nothing to resolve the situation because it left the balance of political parties in the House of Commons unchanged.
In due course, the International Monetary Fund was called in to help Britain resolve her chronic problems. Not until Margaret Thatcher achieved an outright majority in 1979 was Britain able to secure effective political leadership.
This weekend, history is eerily repeating itself. Once again we have the spectacle of a Prime Minister refusing to accept electoral defeat.
Like Edward Heath, Gordon Brown is making the classic mistake of confusing his personal ambition with the national interest.



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Like Heath, Brown is trying to stay in Downing Street by striking a deal with the Liberal Democrats. And, as in 1974, political crisis has struck at a time of economic calamity.
The stockmarkets have fallen 10 per cent in the past week, while sterling is in freefall on the international currency exchanges. As in 1974 Britain faces a financial catastrophe.
It is impossible to overstate what a disaster the result of last Thursday's General Election has been for Britain. It means that alongside an economic crisis, we face political paralysis. One might call the situation a 'perfect storm'.
A second General Election is certain to be called within months, but, as in 1974, there is no guarantee that it will be bring clarity to what is in danger of becoming a desperate situation.
But there is also a more urgent short-term problem. Though Gordon Brown remains Prime Minister technically, and continues to occupy Downing Street, he has lost all authority.
If this political chaos is unresolved on Monday, the markets will turn inexorably on Britain, just as they have turned on Greece over the past few weeks.
So Britain has just two days to cobble together a short-term solution to our problems - or face financial meltdown. And yet Gordon Brown, like Edward Heath 36 years ago, is in no real position to provide the answer. He is profoundly unpopular and has been rejected by the electorate.
So this weekend the momentum lies with David Cameron.
It is true that he did not win an outright majority. Nevertheless, he has led the Conservative Party to one of the most famous triumphs in its history, adding well over 100 seats to the Tory representation in the Commons, a feat not achieved by any Tory leader for 80 years.

Opportunity: Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is being wooed by both sides
Furthermore, it is worth bearing in mind that he scored a clear advantage of two million votes over Labour, scoring 36per cent of the popular vote against Gordon Brown's 29 per cent.
Had that situation been reversed, such is the gross unfairness of the British electoral system, Labour would today be boasting of an electoral triumph and a near three-figure parliamentary advantage over the Tories.
That is why this weekend everything rests on David Cameron, the 43-year-old Tory leader. Cameron is utterly unproven in high office, and has never even held a ministerial job.
Yet today he has been thrust into the heart of an economic and political crisis that will define his own destiny, and the future of Britain.
On top of that he is making vital decisions on the run, and with out the benefit of more than a few hours of snatched sleep. The first of his dilemmas was the biggest: should he offer to work with the Liberal Democrats.
It had always been Cameron's intention to avoid political entanglements. He had decided, in the event of a hung parliament, that the Conservatives would govern on their own.
If the Liberal Democrats chose to sabotage the Tories they would have to take the blame for bringing down this government, and the inevitable political instability that would follow.
But late on Thursday night, when the likelihood of a hung parliament became clearer, Cameron called a crisis meeting with his closest advisers.
They met again in Conservative headquarters early on Friday morning and the strategy became clear. It was essential to offer a deal to Nick Clegg. It would be disastrous for the national interest to act in any other way.
The rudiments of this deal were spelt out in a Press conference early yesterday afternoon. Cameron is offering much more than Nick Clegg can ever have expected: the possibility of Cabinet jobs, the prospect of electoral reform, and major concessions in key policy areas.
This strategy has massive risks. As Cameron is well aware he could spark a revolt inside the Conservative Party, many of whose most senior and influential-figures believe that the party could face electoral oblivion if proportional representation is introduced.

Opportunity: David Cameron spelled out his offer to Nick Clegg at a pres office yesterday afternoon. He is offering the possibility of Cabinet jobs, the prospect of electoral reform, and major concessions in key policy areas
Almost certainly he can deal with potential rebels in his own party. Much more dangerous is treachery from the Liberal Democrats themselves. The majority of the party is profoundly hostile to a Tory government.
The Lib Dems will play a waiting game. They will try to avoid responsibility for David Cameron's most unpopular decisions, and plot secretly with Labour for the most convenient tactical moment to bring down the Tories and precipitate an election that can be fought on their terms.
The most dangerous moment will most likely come this autumn, by which time the Labour Party will have found time to regroup and elect a new leader who can work more easily with the Liberal Democrats than Gordon Brown.
For his part, yesterday David Cameron acted honourably and sensibly. He acted as a national leader and future Prime Minister rather than a partisan figure driven by factional advantage.
He made the Liberal Democrats a generous offer - and Nick Clegg will damage himself gravely if he refuses it.
My bet is that David Cameron will find himself in Downing Street by Monday morning. He has already shown that he has the moral stature to be British Prime Minister. This is his moment of destiny.

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